There may be a larger than expected statistical recovery in the economy and in financial markets than one might expect, simply because the drawdown in business activity and financial conditions from September 2008 through March 2009 was so extreme. The scope for a “big bounce” in procurement-type orders is substantial given a nearly 15% contraction in the non-public sector/non-personal necessities components of the economy. The big bounce might run out of gas sometime in 2010 or 2011 - then many of the unavoidable realities of the post-credit bubble economy such as chronic overcapacity and disquietingly high unemployment levels may assert themselves more prominently....